You may see headlines saying new home inventory is back to “crash” levels. Context matters. New builds are only one slice of the market. When you combine new construction with existing homes, overall supply today looks very different than the mid-2000s. A clearer view helps buyers in Hillsborough County and Pinellas avoid bad assumptions and act with confidence. See national inventory detail from the Census and NAR for a fuller picture.
A large share of today’s new-home inventory is not move-in ready. Builders list homes at three stages: not started, under construction, and completed. Much of the increase sits in the first two buckets, so it doesn’t flood the market with immediate options. You still need a plan if you want keys in hand within 30–90 days. Review the breakdown on the Census new residential sales page and NAR’s existing-home inventory updates for context.
The last housing crash followed years of overbuilding and risky lending. Since then, builders underbuilt for well over a decade. That shortage is why clean, well-priced homes in Tampa, Riverview, Brandon, Westchase, and St. Petersburg still draw attention. Realtor.com’s latest supply-gap research estimates it would take years of steady building to catch up nationally. That is very different from the oversupply story that defined the late 2000s.
