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2026 Housing Outlook: What Could Change for You

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Forecasts point to more move-friendly conditions in 2026. If rates ease and mobility improves, Tampa Bay should see more listings and cleaner match quality across Westchase, Seminole, and Brandon. Watch our expert clip: What Appraisers Look | How sellers can shine.

What could shift next year

Two levers drive change: rates and sales volume. Even a modest rate dip can lift approvals and unlock move-up inventory. With more supply, competition spreads out and negotiation improves for prepared buyers. For seller-side strategy in a turning market, read Why Lower Rates Are Bringing Buyers Back—and How Sellers Win.

Line chart showing projected rise in home sales for 2026

Fannie Mae Economic and Housing Outlook

How to prep now in Hillsborough and Pinellas

Refresh preapproval with today’s fees and points so you know payment bands at small rate steps. Track the newest pendings in your micro-area and decide where credits or buydowns make total monthly cost work without weakening your position.

Chart of projected 30-year mortgage rates into 2026

Prices likely moderate, not crash

Most forecasts point to modest national growth. Locally, results vary by supply. In tight pockets, expect firmer pricing and faster decisions. In higher-inventory areas, negotiate credits tied to inspections or rate buydowns to keep cash-to-close and payment aligned.

Bar chart of moderated national home price growth forecasts for 2026

Key takeaways

  • Small rate moves can unlock inventory and improve match quality.
  • Work from live comps and current quotes, not last quarter’s numbers.
  • Preparation and offer structure are your speed advantage.

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