Mortgage delinquencies and what they signal for foreclosures

Foreclosure headlines can be loud. A better leading indicator is mortgage delinquency. The latest read shows stability, not stress, which matters if you are planning a move in Hillsborough County, Tampa, or Riverview.

The big picture

MBA’s quarterly survey shows total mortgage delinquencies edged down in the second quarter to 3.93 percent, and foreclosure starts were about seventeen hundredths of one percent. See the press summary here: Mortgage Bankers Association update.

Why FHA trends look different

FHA loans make up a smaller share of total mortgage balances but a larger share of new thirty day delinquencies this year. The New York Fed explains the composition shift and why it is not a crash signal for the broader market. Review the analysis in A Check In on the Mortgage Market.

Geography matters

FHA usage is concentrated more heavily in parts of the South, including Florida. That concentration can make statewide news look worse than the overall national picture even when conventional performance in places like Brandon, Westchase, and St. Petersburg remains steady.

What this means for buyers and sellers

• Buyers should not plan around a wave of distressed listings resetting prices across Pinellas or Tampa. Use today’s inventory, rates, and current comps to shape offers.
• Sellers should price with live competition, not with expectations of forced sales setting the market.
• Owners under strain should contact their servicer early about repayment plans or modifications. If selling is smarter, equity can be a safety valve. See ATTOM’s mid year report for context on levels today: foreclosure activity update.

For pacing and negotiation tips in the current environment, read Why Buyers Finally Have Time To Shop Smart.